Lets calculate roughly and logically with mathematics: 15winner from 861player joined = around 1.74% But the chance may increase when cheaters are not allowed to win :) Good luck for next weekly raffle events ^^ Tips from me: do your best at hard weekly events, since the probability grow higher on harder events
Assuming that by the end of the event, 300 people will get to the "correct" bumper, it's a 5% chance Note: There are already 200+ people in the correct bumper
Assuming that by the end of the event, 300 people will get to the "correct" bumper, it's a 5% chance Note: There are already 200+ people in the correct bumper
The chance to win = 15 winners / (# of people who entered that contest) [[where / means to divide by]]. To get the % (as percentages are what chances are typically expressed in), multiply the chance to win by 100 and stick a percentage sign (%) on the number. That is how these calculations were done:
Assuming that by the end of the event, 300 people will get to the "correct" bumper, it's a 5% chance Note: There are already 200+ people in the correct bumper
Many people havent won ;-; im guessing 000000000.5% chance to win
That is a good chance, thats the same as flipping a coin lol.
.5% is NOT the same as flipping a coin (note the leading zeros before a . do not mean anything...). Flipping a coin is a 50% chance as you have a 1/2 chance of getting either heads or tails. .5% = .005 or 5/1000.
If 3000 people enter an event, then yes, you'd have a .5% chance to win...as 15/3000 = 5/1000. -----------
So...math lesson complete... @AejeongEon is correct...if you enter the harder events, you will have a higher chance to win that event, as there are less people entered, yet the number of winners stays constant. So your chances to win increase.
However, as more people find out about the events and attempt them, your chances to win will be lower if more people participate in that event.
But all the events are fun, so it's worth it to try them and participate in them. And you might make some new friends along the way.
50% you, 50% others. That's the percentage. When I mean others I mean other players. Which means to other players it is 50% them and 50% others ( including you ) too.
50% you, 50% others. That's the percentage. When I mean others I mean other players. Which means to other players it is 50% them and 50% others ( including you ) too.
You've been doing meth instead of math. I'm pretty sure it's not 50% because the odds of winnig the event itself is 15/(Players who participated - alts or double bumps) and those who participated are waaaay more than 30 people only.
Assuming that by the end of the event, 300 people will get to the "correct" bumper, it's a 5% chance Note: There are already 200+ people in the correct bumper
Did your "correct" bumper mean refer to murder case event or space event? :3
Assuming that by the end of the event, 300 people will get to the "correct" bumper, it's a 5% chance Note: There are already 200+ people in the correct bumper
Did your "correct" bumper mean refer to murder case event or space event? :3
I was referring to the probability of people in the correct bumper to get prizes. Well if my guess was right which was quite obvious if you know all the secret places and took notes.
I was referring to the probability of people in the correct bumper to get prizes. Well if my guess was right which was quite obvious if you know all the secret places and took notes.
Oh yes, i was thinking that space's event refered to space fuel event that make us look for mushroom, but i realize it mean spacefetus event haha.. and btw "all" seems didnt really suit me since i myself still not sure if i got it all
Y'all arguing about the right when I got as my awnser Lonely Branch
Hehe sorry, but i got feedback for you. Calling space is a trickster mean offensive in my place ( Or sorry if it just was me ), but lets leave it behind. Well actually all case always have trick and twist for the detective to solve, so space_fetus or anyone else will do the same to make the story. You said,"You honestly don't know if your right or not". I can say i agree with you with this, but disagree in some point. I know that i "don't know" what happen actually since we didnt watch the murder event with our own eye. But still, we can predict it. With notes that scattered in the house you can "see" what's really going on in the house, but even i myself got "all notes" (still unsure) i still have some possible chronology because some certain point is still missing. Is it hard to get all notes? Nope, Just roam and roam every possible place. And #Blame_Horus, we didnt have any forensic team for us as detective since irl forensic is a must hahaha..
chris r.
Member
Comments
Havent done that but it works
Chances are 50/50 when doing it
15winner from 861player joined = around 1.74%
But the chance may increase when cheaters are not allowed to win :)
Good luck for next weekly raffle events ^^
Tips from me: do your best at hard weekly events, since the probability grow higher on harder events
Note: There are already 200+ people in the correct bumper
If 3000 people enter an event, then yes, you'd have a .5% chance to win...as 15/3000 = 5/1000.
-----------
So...math lesson complete...
@AejeongEon is correct...if you enter the harder events, you will have a higher chance to win that event, as there are less people entered, yet the number of winners stays constant. So your chances to win increase.
However, as more people find out about the events and attempt them, your chances to win will be lower if more people participate in that event.
But all the events are fun, so it's worth it to try them and participate in them. And you might make some new friends along the way.
I'm pretty sure it's not 50% because the odds of winnig the event itself is 15/(Players who participated - alts or double bumps) and those who participated are waaaay more than 30 people only.
and btw "all" seems didnt really suit me since i myself still not sure if i got it all
You said,"You honestly don't know if your right or not". I can say i agree with you with this, but disagree in some point. I know that i "don't know" what happen actually since we didnt watch the murder event with our own eye. But still, we can predict it. With notes that scattered in the house you can "see" what's really going on in the house, but even i myself got "all notes" (still unsure) i still have some possible chronology because some certain point is still missing. Is it hard to get all notes? Nope, Just roam and roam every possible place. And #Blame_Horus, we didnt have any forensic team for us as detective since irl forensic is a must hahaha.. No no, you didnt miss something, its just actually this: